\nThe rupture between Niger and France, accelerated after the coup of 26 July 2023, marks a major turning point in the Sahel. Expulsion of the ambassador, withdrawal of French troops, denunciation of military cooperation agreements, suspension of aid and diplomatic repositioning: taken together, these redraw the security, economic and geopolitical balances in Niger and across the region.\n<\/p>\n
\nAfter the seizure of power by the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), Niger\u2019s new authorities gradually called into question the entire French presence: military cooperation, diplomatic presence, development partnerships. This rupture is part of a broader movement contesting the French presence in the Sahel, already visible in Mali and Burkina Faso.\n<\/p>\n
\nOn the diplomatic front, several elements combine:\n<\/p>\n
\nThis rupture is also a tool of domestic legitimation for the military authorities: denouncing France serves as a political resource, in a context where popular opposition to the French presence was already strong, fuelled by security and economic frustrations and a sense of postcolonial continuity.\n<\/p>\n
\nBefore the coup, Niger had become a central partner in France\u2019s Sahel strategy, following the withdrawals from Mali and then Burkina Faso. French forces there conducted intelligence, air support and training operations, in support of the Nigerien army and of international arrangements (notably the former Operation Barkhane and the Takuba task force).\n<\/p>\n
\nThe withdrawal of French troops has several major security consequences:\n<\/p>\n
\nOn the ground, the situation remains mixed and evolving:\n<\/p>\n
\nThe search for new security partners, Russia in particular, could partly offset French cooperation, but in different ways: less integration into multilateral frameworks, more bilateral arrangements, and priority given to protecting the regime and strategic urban centres. The medium-term effects on the dynamics of violence remain uncertain, and the available data so far show fluctuating trends rather than an abrupt and uniform change.\n<\/p>\n
\nFrance was one of Niger\u2019s main bilateral donors, through the French Development Agency (AFD), budget support, infrastructure projects and support for social sectors (education, health, governance). The rupture has led to:\n<\/p>\n
\nThe uranium sector, historically at the heart of the Franco-Nigerien relationship through the company Orano, is symbolically central. Even if the share of Nigerien uranium in the overall supply of France and the EU is less dominant than in the past, the sector remains strategic for Niger. The challenging of certain contracts and the search for new outlets (towards other partners) reflect a desire to reposition, but room for manoeuvre is limited by market constraints and investment needs.\n<\/p>\n
\nThe rupture comes alongside the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) after the coup, which hit Niger hard: partial border closures, financial restrictions, supply difficulties. Although these sanctions were gradually eased and then lifted, their effects revealed the structural vulnerability of a landlocked country dependent on regional trade corridors and financial transfers.\n<\/p>\n
\nThe combination of the rupture with France, tensions with some neighbours and internal socio-economic fragility (food insecurity, demographic pressure, massive youth underemployment) creates an uncertain economic environment, in which the promises of new partners do not immediately offset the loss of funding and guarantees associated with traditional donors.\n<\/p>\n
\nThe rupture with France is part of a broader geopolitical realignment in the Sahel. Niger, together with Mali and Burkina Faso, announced its withdrawal from ECOWAS and the creation or consolidation of an alternative grouping, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This dynamic is accompanied by:\n<\/p>\n
\nFor France, and more broadly for the European Union, this rupture undermines a pillar of the Sahel strategy, built around a security \u2013 development \u2013 governance triptych. It also complicates the handling of cross-cutting issues such as migration, the fight against trafficking and the stabilisation of border areas.\n<\/p>\n
\nFor Niger, the repositioning offers political and symbolic room for manoeuvre, but carries risks: relative isolation from certain partners, increased dependence on a smaller number of allies, exposure to rivalries between external powers.\n<\/p>\n
\nThe rupture with France also has domestic effects, both political and societal. It comes in a context of distrust towards elites associated with former international partnerships, and feeds a nationalist discourse that values sovereignty and a break with \u201cthe old order\u201d.\n<\/p>\n
\nSeveral dynamics can be observed:\n<\/p>\n
\nFor part of the population, the rupture with France carries hopes of change, but these expectations run up against socio-economic realities: persistent poverty, fragile public services, territorial inequalities, a lack of opportunities for young people. In the medium term, the authorities\u2019 ability to turn the political capital of the rupture into concrete improvements in daily life will be a key factor of stability or internal tension.\n<\/p>\n
\nThe impact of the rupture with France in Niger plays out at several levels:\n<\/p>\n
\nThis is an ongoing process, whose final effects will depend on several variables: the Nigerien state\u2019s ability to maintain an effective presence throughout the territory, the nature and solidity of the new partnerships, the evolution of sanctions and of relations with regional organisations, and above all the response given to the socio-economic needs of a young, large population exposed to security and climate shocks.\n<\/p>\n
\nThe rupture with France is neither an immediate solution to Niger\u2019s crises nor the sole cause of its difficulties. Above all, it acts as a catalyst and a revealer of long-standing structural fragilities, while opening a phase of realignment whose outcome remains largely open.\n<\/p>\n