{"id":22520,"date":"2025-10-26T10:43:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-26T10:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/quels-scenarios-pour-la-securite-regionale-dici-cinq-ans\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T17:14:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T17:14:37","slug":"quels-scenarios-pour-la-securite-regionale-dici-cinq-ans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/quels-scenarios-pour-la-securite-regionale-dici-cinq-ans\/","title":{"rendered":"Quels sc\u00e9narios pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale d\u2019ici cinq ans ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Analyse consolid\u00e9e.<\/strong> Cette analyse prospective a \u00e9t\u00e9 fusionn\u00e9e avec notre dossier de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, plus complet et r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement mis \u00e0 jour : Quels sc\u00e9narios s\u00e9curitaires pour l\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest d\u2019ici 2030 ?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

La s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest se joue entre trois trajectoires : une extension de l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 depuis le Sahel central vers le Golfe de Guin\u00e9e, une stabilisation partielle limit\u00e9e aux villes et aux corridors strat\u00e9giques, et une recomposition des architectures de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionales. Ces sc\u00e9narios, les tendances lourdes qui les nourrissent (donn\u00e9es ACLED, International Crisis Group, ISS Africa, Clingendael, Banque mondiale, OCDE) et les facteurs cl\u00e9s \u00e0 surveiller pour les cinq \u00e0 dix prochaines ann\u00e9es sont d\u00e9taill\u00e9s dans notre analyse de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence.<\/p>\n

\u2192 Lire le dossier complet : sc\u00e9narios s\u00e9curitaires pour l\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest d\u2019ici 2030<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analyse consolid\u00e9e. Cette analyse prospective a \u00e9t\u00e9 fusionn\u00e9e avec notre dossier de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, plus complet et r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement mis \u00e0 jour : Quels sc\u00e9narios s\u00e9curitaires pour l\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest d\u2019ici 2030 ? La s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest se joue entre trois trajectoires : une extension de l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 depuis le Sahel central vers le Golfe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"S\u00e9curit\u00e9 au Sahel dans 5 ans : 3 sc\u00e9narios \u00e0 anticiper","_seopress_titles_desc":"Fragmentation, stabilisation partielle ou recomposition : quels sc\u00e9narios pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale au Sahel et Golfe de Guin\u00e9e d'ici cinq ans ?","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/quels-scenarios-securitaires-pour-lafrique-de-louest-dici-2030\/","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_seopress_news_disabled":"","_seopress_video_disabled":"","_seopress_video":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas_manual":[],"_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable_all":"","_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas":[],"footnotes":""},"acteur":[107,108,109],"niveau":[114],"risque":[116,117],"thematique":[135,137,142],"zone":[133,127,131,129,128,134,132],"class_list":["post-22520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","acteur-etats-et-institutions-publiques","acteur-forces-armees-et-securite","acteur-groupes-armes-non-etatiques","niveau-niveau-analytique","risque-risques-politiques","risque-risques-securitaires","thematique-conflits-armes-et-terrorisme","thematique-geopolitique-et-acteurs-internationaux","thematique-prospective-et-solutions","zone-benin","zone-burkina-faso","zone-cote-divoire","zone-mali","zone-niger","zone-nigeria","zone-togo"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22520","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22520"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22520\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35423,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22520\/revisions\/35423"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"acteur","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/acteur?post=22520"},{"taxonomy":"niveau","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/niveau?post=22520"},{"taxonomy":"risque","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/risque?post=22520"},{"taxonomy":"thematique","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thematique?post=22520"},{"taxonomy":"zone","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sahel.watch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/zone?post=22520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}